It’s simple: they tell me how much I will get back if I bet $1. I mean, they are still using Feet and Fahrenheit anywayįor the purpose of this project, we will use a nicer system: the European Odds. So, US odds are a number greater than or equal to 100, sometimes preceded by a + to indicate the number is your profit, sometimes preceded by a - to indicate the amount you need to bet to win $100. What the is that? It means in order to make a $100 profit, you’ll need to place a $150 bet. This is fine, but then they have negative odds, like an -150 odds. If you see an odds of+300, it means your payoff is $300 if you bet 100 and win. If you ever think that the terms and quoted APR on your credit cards are complicated, try venturing into those betting websites once. Understand the bookmarkers: how do Odds work? And I enter a new game against a new opponent: it’s me against the bookies. This is when I started looking into sports betting. And I did not even have to do much besides asking the beloved Poisson processes to chunk out numbers. A 10% edge over an expert’s opinion is huge. Interestingly, Merson predicted a 2–2 draw between Arsenal and Manchester United, saying “ both teams will have a go at each other and there will be goals.” My algorithms, by averaging the number of goals Arsenal scored and conceded at home, assigning a slight edge and winning probability of 45% to Arsenal, comparing to 27% to Man United. He achieved a 54.9% accuracy, while my Poisson-process algorithm achieved a surprising 64.1% accuracy. Here, I compared the results between 273 matches Merson predicted this season. Right: The Poisson process algorithm got 51+7+117 = 175 matches, a whopping 64.1% Left: Merson’s correctly predicts 150 matches or 54.9%. The confusion matrix that shows how accurate Merson’s and my algorithm’s predictions are, over 273 matches.
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